Well, that was one hell of a month, wasn’t it?  The consensus in the sporting press is that this was the best World Cup in recent memory, and it’s hard to argue otherwise.  We saw plenty of goals, one or two overacheiving underdogs, mercifully few officiating fiascoes and, at the end of the day, the best team won it all.  Can’t ask for much more than that, right?

Yesterday’s match never really rose to the level of greatness, but it was still a fitting enough final act for this drama.  The fact that the contest wasn’t more entertaining is really a testament to Argentina’s tactics.  For the most part, they kept Germany bottled up, and they were able to create a handful of very good chances for themselves, chances that you’d have expected them to convert if their attackers had been playing on their club teams.  How many times have we seen Lionel Messi score for Barcelona on exactly the same left-footed shot that he sent fizzing just beyond Manuel Neuer’s far post at the beginning of the second half?  And would Gonzalo Higuain have failed to hit the target after latching on to Tony Kroos’ wayward header if he’d been wearing a Real Madrid shirt?  For as much as these guys are used to playing on a big stage, carrying the weight of your country’s expectations with the entire world watching is a whole different level of pressure.

Argentina got their game plan right, executed it very well, and still lost.  Cruel, maybe, but that’s how fine the margins are at this level.  By failing to capitalize on their earlier chances, Argentina left the door open for Germany and, when the time came, Mario Goetze didn’t miss.  It was a fine goal, worthy of the occasion, and Germany were deserving winners.  They’ve been the best team throughout the tournament, having conceded only four goals in seven games while scoring more than anybody else (aided, obviously, but the seven that they put past hapless Brazil).  Along the way, they came through a very difficult group without breaking a sweat, neutralized a French attack that had been in very good form, demolished the hosts and then defeated the best player in the world.  Their only “stumble” along the way was needing extra time to get past Algeria, but even that somehow felt convincing by the end.

The German team was packed with standout performers.  In a tournament marked by some very good goalkeeping, Maunuel Neuer enhanced his claim on the title of the world’s best; Miloslav Klose broke Ronaldo’s record for World Cup goals, a record which Thomas Muller may in turn eclipse (sooner than later at the rate he’s going); Schweinsteiger, Kroos, Khedira, Lahm, Boateng… all of them were excellent.  Klose and Lahm were the only starters over the age of 30, so expect to see a alot of these same faces defending their title in Russia in 2018.

Now that it’s all over, it’s time to take one last look at my predictions (actual results follow in parenthesis, correctly-predicted winners in bold):

Third-Place Game:   Netherlands 1-0 over Brazil (Netherlands won 3-0)
Final:    Germany 1-0 over Argentia (Germany won 1-0 after extra time)

I got to off to a bit of a mediocre start in terms of prognostication, correctly predicting only nine of the sixteen teams that advanced beyond the group stage.  After that, though, I did much better – of the sixteen games played in the knockout rounds, I correctly called the winner in fifteen of them (France/Nigeria in the Round of 16 was the one I missed).  I suspect a lot of people will have had similar success, as the big teams generally performed as expected.  I also suspect that, in the future, these things are going to get more difficult to predict.  For me, one of the biggest takeaways from Brazil is that the “smaller” teams are getting better.  I’m not suggesting that a team like Costa Rica (or the United States) is ready to win the World Cup any time soon, but I think that teams like this will start to take bigger scalps with more regularity, and they’ll do it not by being utterly negative and grabbing a lucky goal, but by continuing to evolve and develop quality players that, on their day, will be capable of actually outplaying anyone in the world.

In broad terms, I see the World Cup changing along the lines that the NCAA basketball tournament has.  If you think back to the 1980’s or early 1990’s, picking brackets was a much easier exercise than it is today.  Really big upsets were a rarity, and you could at least navigate the early rounds with some degree of confidence.  Now, parity has taken over.  Smaller conference teams are much, much better than what they were 25 years ago, and most teams that make the field are capable of playing with anybody.  I’m sure that has something to do with the big-time teams no longer keeping players for four years, but it’s pretty clear that the smaller teams are also getting better players than they used to.  Scouting, recruiting and coaching have all improved to the point that we’ve managed to enlarge the pool of quality players.  There are simply more to go around now than there were in 1986.

Gradually, I think the same thing is happening in soccer.  The game has become so lucrative that clubs have every incentive to scour the globe for talent, and to develop it once they find it.  Communication and travel have developed to the point that it’s unlikely for a quality player to remain undiscovered forever.  Combine that with the fact that more players in the U.S. and Asia are finding their way into the game as its popularity continues to grow, and I don’t think it’s a stretch to think that the talent pool will deepen significantly over the next couple of decades.

Whether all of this will make the World Cup more enjoyable remains to be seen.  More parity doesn’t automatically make for a better event; the NCAA basketball tournament was probably more fun back in the ’80’s.  Luckily, soccer isn’t basketball, and the parallel I’ve sketched here isn’t meant to be exact.  I think the “name-brand” teams will continue to dominate for the foreseeable future – there just won’t be as many easy games along the way.  And that’s perfect – winning this thing should be hard, after all.

So, the World Cup is over, and life goes on.  Most of the players are already back in training with their clubs, getting ready for their pre-season tours in July and gearing up for the start of their seasons in August.  Liverpool sold Luis Suarez to Barcelona for £64 million, so good luck to him (and to his opponents in the Spanish league who would like to get through the season without being bitten).   I’ll miss blogging about all of this stuff, but it’s time, I think, to steer this blog back toward the purpose for which it was intended.  Look for a renewed focus on my writing in the weeks to come (unless, of course, something else distracts me).  Thanks for bearing with me and I hope you enjoyed the World Cup!

After the referee mercifully blew the final whistle and put Brazil out of their misery on Tuesday afternoon, I pulled out my copy of the Bible and skimmed through the Book of Revelation.  Much to my relief,  I was able to confirm that Brazil losing a World Cup semi-final on home soil by six clear goals was not explicitly mentioned as a harbinger of the apocalypse, so I shelved my plan to run out and stock up on canned foods.  Given the size of our apartment, it’s not like we could have stored enough to last us any length of time, anyhow.  I remain a big proponent of city living, but I will concede that we’re at a significant disadvantage when it comes to preparing for doomsday.

The result in Belo Horizonte may not have been a sign of the End Times, but it was a seismic blow to Brazil’s collective psyche.  Soccer is such a massive part of their national identity that this defeat felt more like a military failure or an economic collapse than a sporting letdown.  At the end of the day, games are trivial things, and it’s silly to compare them with anything that carries real life and death consequences.  Even the most ardent Brazilian fans understand this, of course, but I don’t imagine that being reminded of it will comfort them all that much.  Losing by a goal or two would have been tough for them to swallow.  7-1, though, triggered an existential crisis.  After that 90 minutes, they were forced to confront the fact that they were nothing like what they thought they were.

For the players and coaches, the inquest will go on for months; for the rest of us, this memorable tournament roars on toward its final act.

RESULTS FOR THE SEMI-FINALS

Well, I got both of the results right, but it feels like a stretch to claim that I successfully predicted that Brazil-Germany match.  My only comfort is that I’m pretty sure that no one else saw this one coming, either.  For the record, here are my predictions (actual results follow in parenthesis, correctly-predicted winners in bold):

1.  Germany 2-1 over Brazil (Germany won 7-1)

Lots of folks backed Germany to advance here, but the assumption was that Brazil would put up a real fight and make it difficult.  After the Germans scored five in the opening half-hour, all of that was out the window.  Brazil’s only hope was to salvage a little pride in the second half.  In the end, they couldn’t even manage that.

The match felt like such an anomaly that it’s not clear what, if anything, we’re supposed to take away from it.  Certainly, any concerns about the Germans not being ruthless enough in their finishing have been laid to rest; on the basis of what we saw on Tuesday, I think we can all agree that Germany is the team that you least want to see across from you when you’re having a bad day.  For as poor as Brazil might have been, we shouldn’t lose sight of the fact that their opponents were excellent.  Again, the midfield three of Schweinsteiger, Khedira and Kroos absolutely dominated the game, while Klose and Muller kept popping up in dangerous positions.  The defenders always looked comfortable (as defenders tend to do when they have the luxury of playing with a five-goal lead).

So, what happened to Brazil?  Many will point to the absence of Neymar, but others will rightly retort that he wouldn’t have contributed any additional solidity on the defensive end even if he’d been there.  Perhaps more telling was the absence of Thiago Silva, but even that can’t have been the whole story.  As the ESPN commentators pointed out, Dante and Bernard (the replacements for Silva and Neymar, respectively) are accomplished footballers who play for big European clubs – bringing them into the side shouldn’t have caused a complete meltdown.

In the end, it seemed like a perfect storm – the incomprehensible pressure on the shoulders of the hosts, the psychological strain of playing without Neymar, a German team in wonderful form that punished every single mistake… it all added up to an afternoon that we won’t soon forget.

2.  Argentina 1-0 over Netherlands (Match finished 0-0 after extra time, Argentina won on penalties)

On the surface, this one sounds like it could have been a classic:  a rematch of the 1978 final, scoreless after extra time, decided by the ultimate dramatic spectacle of penalties.  Appearances, though, can be deceiving.  Somehow, this match managed to be a pretty dull affair, and I don’t have all that much to say about it.

The Dutch weren’t able to muster their first shot on target until extra time, and Argentina was only marginally more threatening.  Neither side ever looked like scoring.  This looked much more like a semi-final, with both sides adopting a very cagey approach and neither manager prepared to risk their tournament lives on reckless attacking.

Even the penalty kicks failed to produce much excitement, as Ron Vlaar’s initial miss seemed to doom the Dutch from the beginning.  Maybe Louis van Gaal should have saved that last substitution and tried the Tim Krul trick one more time, but something tells me that it wouldn’t have made a difference.

FINAL PREDICTIONS (PREDICTED WINNERS IN BOLD)

Third-Place Game:

Netherlands vs. Brazil

If ever there was a contest in which the teams were less keen to participate, I can’t think of it.  I’m sure that the entire Brazilian team just wants to crawl under the nearest rock, and the Dutch can’t be thrilled at having cemented their place as soccer’s nearly-men by falling on penalties just before the final hurdle.  Louis van Gaal has already said that he doesn’t want to play this match, but play they must.  Picking a winner here is a matter of trying to figure out which team is less crushed and, on that basis, I suppose you have to favor the Netherlands.  It’s going to take more than a few days for Brazil to recover from the beating that they took at the hands of the Germans, and it’s not as if redemption is on offer for the hosts. A third-place finish will do nothing to salve their wounds and, with neither side having much to gain, I expect this to be a dull, lifeless affair.  1-0 to the Dutch.

Championship Game:

Germany vs. Argentina

From the beginning, I’ve thought that Argentina would win this tournament.  It’s tempting to stick with them, and there are good reasons to do so:  prior to 2010, no European team had ever won the World Cup outside of Europe, and when Spain finally broke that hex, they weren’t forced to overcome anyone with a home-continent advantage.  Argentina will enjoy vociferous support from a healthy compliment of blue and white clad travelling fans at the Maracana on Sunday.  Perhaps more significantly, they’ll have Lionel Messi.  It’s always nice to have the best player on the field on your side.

On the other hand, it’s hard not to want to re-think my original position in light of what Germany have done in their last two matches.  Anyone who’s ever tried sports, at any level, can attest to the supreme value of confidence.  The Germans have that in spades now, and they’ll also have the backing of the entire Brazilian nation, whose biggest nightmare is the thought of their neighbors lifting the trophy on their soil.

As important as Messi is, I think that Javier Maschiarano might play the most important role in Rio.  He’ll need to negate the excellent German midfield, while keeping an eye open toward launching counterattacks.  He’s a world-class defensive midfielder, but he’ll have his hands full here.

Without Angel di Maria to run at defenders, the Argentine attack has looked muted.  If Aguero is fit, look for some better movement from him to free up some space for Messi.

Argentina is an experienced team with an experienced manager, and they won’t be naïve here.  I expect them to keep things tight, but, in the end, I think that Germany will find a way to pull this one out.  1-0 to Germany.

We’re close enough now that these guys can almost taste it.  Two wins from immortality.  It’s easy to understand why goals have proven harder to come by since we’ve entered the knockout phase.  Defenders are committed to the point of desperation.  No one wants to make a mistake, including the managers.  Riskier tactics and team selections are eschewed in favor of more defensive (and defensible) approaches.

All of the plucky outsiders have been sent home, and we’re left with a final four which includes only the giants of soccer history.  Of the five nations that have won more than one World Cup, three are still alive in Brazil.  The Dutch are the only semi-finalists never to have lifted the trophy, but they have been runners-up three times and their historical stature and influence in the sport are beyond question.

Backing the big teams turned out to be the way to go, it seems, as I got all four of my quarter-final predictions right (at least in terms of results):

RESULTS FOR THE QUARTER-FINALS

My predictions (actual results follow in parenthesis, correctly-predicted winners in bold):

1.  Germany 1-1 with France, Germany wins on penalties (Germany won 1-0)

Germany had an easier time than I expected, as they looked to be in control from start to finish.  France had moments here and there, but never seemed able to mount any kind of a sustained threat.  I kept waiting for them to make a substitution to try to change the game, but when they finally made a move after 70 minutes, it was to swap one central defender for another.   They waited until the 73rd minute to bring on Loic Remy; Olivier Giroud wasn’t introduced until the 85th.  Too little, too late.

2.  Brazil 2-1 over Colombia (Brazil won 2-1)

This is not your father’s Brazil – more grit than samba, scoring both their goals through central defenders on set pieces and then hanging on for dear life.  Colombia went toe to toe with the hosts and will feel unlucky about not having gotten a second goal, but Brazil deserve credit for defending well.  They may not have won any extra style points, but they did what they had to do to survive.  They paid a heavy price, though, in losing Neymar for the duration of the tournament with a back injury.

3.  Argentina 2-1 over Belgium (Argentina won 1-0)

Belgium were a bit disappointing here, never really getting into the game.  Part of that was due to the Red Devils’ somewhat bewildering decision to have Marouane Fellaini try to man-mark Lionel Messi, a task at which he proved completely ineffective.  Credit must also be given to the excellent Javier Maschiarano, who seemed to pop up whenever the Belgians tried to do anything in the offensive end.  Higuain took his early goal well and it was cruise control after that for Argentina.

4.  Netherlands 2-0 over Costa Rica (Match finished 0-0 after extra time, Netherlands won on penalties)

This match was almost all one-way traffic, as expected, but Costa Rica somehow kept the Dutch out for 120 minutes and pushed them to the limit.  The Dutch deserve credit for keeping their composure when it came down to penalties (and maybe for making Costa Rica lose theirs with the Tim Krul substitution), but it’s hard not to see this as disappointing for the Netherlands.  They got the result they needed in the end, but their inability to break the Ticos down doesn’t bode well for their next, much stiffer, challenge).

SEMI-FINAL MATCH-UPS (PREDICTED WINNERS IN BOLD)

Germany vs. Brazil
Argentina vs. Netherlands

Even before the injury to Neymar, Brazil have struggled to create chances from open play (both their quarter-final goals came on free kicks).  When you combine his absence with that of Brazilian captain Thiago Silva (suspended after picking up a very unnecessary yellow card against Colombia), things are looking grim for the hosts.

That’s not to say that Germany don’t have weaknesses – their defenders look slow, and their finishing hasn’t been as ruthless as they would have liked.  Moving Lahm to his proper position at right back and starting Klose up front seemed to improve things, though, and their quarter-final performance was their most convincing so far.  Notably, they midfield three of Schweinsteiger, Khedira and Kroos were completely dominant in shutting down a heretofore free-scoring French attack.  All of this adds up to bad news for the hosts.  2-1 to Germany.

The Netherlands have struggled with CONCACAF opponents in the knockout rounds so far, needing two late goals (including a stoppage-time penalty) to come from behind against Mexico, and going all the way to penalties against Costa Rica.  Both of those teams had excellent tournaments but, with all due respect to them, Argentina represent a big step up in class.  The Dutch will need to raise their game if they are to survive another round.  They’ll also need to adjust their approach – they won’t have the luxury of keeping the ball and dictating the tempo the way they did against the Ticos

I think that they have the talent to play better, and they will certainly benefit from the absence of Angel di Maria.  My sense, though, is that their exertions will finally catch up with them, and Argentina will prove too talented.  Like Germany, they seem to have improved with each round, and they will be confident after a convincing performance against Belgium.  1-0 to Argentina.

Look… most of us always understood that we weren’t going to win the World Cup.  Jurgen Klinsmann took some heat for admitting as much before he got on the plane to Brazil, but anyone who pays any sort of attention to this sport knew that he was simply being realistic.  Roy Hodgson said more or less the same thing about England’s chances and everyone over there just nodded in resigned agreement.  Pretty much every manager, other than the guys in charge of the real heavyweights (like Brazil, Argentina and Germany) would have answered the same way.

Even so, that didn’t make it any easier to watch us get eliminated by Belgium today.  When you get to the knockout stage, and you see the big teams getting pushed to their limits, you start to believe that anything is possible.  No matter how much you try to keep your expectations in check, you start talking yourself into believing.  The dream becomes tangible, and it hurts when the bubble finally gets popped.

I was incredibly proud of the team’s fighting spirit, but, like I said the other day, you can only hang on by your fingernails for so long.  If not for the excellent Tim Howard, Belgium would have scored at least two or three goals in regulation time.  The U.S. defended valiantly, but we won’t be considered on par with the world’s elite teams until we progress to the point where we can keep the ball for longer stretches, or at the very least frighten our opponents with faster and more threatening counter-attacks.  We’re not there yet.

At the end of the day, though, this was a good showing from the U.S. team.   They got through a very challenging group, pushed Belgium to extra time, and gave them a real scare in those last fifteen minutes.  A lot of teams would have folded once they went down 2-0 after 105 minutes; we raised our game and damn near pulled it out.  As a fan, I couldn’t ask for a more committed group of players.

A final word about Jurgen Klinsmann.  You have to say that he did everything right here, as all of his substitutions seemed to pay off, and his faith in youngsters like DeAndre Yedlin, John Brooks and Julian Green was more than justified.  I’m excited to see where we go from here.

RESULTS FOR THE ROUND OF 16

I picked seven out of eight results correctly (I would have settled for six and a U.S. win, but it wasn’t to be):

My predictions (actual results follow in parenthesis, correctly-predicted winners in bold):

1.  Brazil 2-1 over Chile (Match finished 1-1 after extra time, Brazil won on penalties)

Chile came within inches of winning the match at the end of extra time, and Brazil were lucky to survive a very nervy penalty shoot-out.  A reminder of the pressure that these guys have to deal with every time they take the field, and also a warning that a team with either Fred or Jo up front may not be good enough to win the World Cup.

2.  Colombia 3-1 over Uruguay (Colombia won 2-0)

I didn’t hit the score on the nose, but this one played out as expected.  Without Luis Suarez, Uruguay looked a spent force.  Colombia will feel great about their chances against a somewhat vulnerable-looking Brazil in the quarter-finals.

3.  Netherlands 2-0 over Mexico (Netherlands won 2-1)

Again, this was harder than I envisioned.  The penalty drawn by Robben in stoppage time was legitimate, I think, but it was hard not to feel for the Mexicans.  They went toe to toe with the Dutch and very nearly pulled it off.

4.  Costa Rica 1-1 with Greece, Costa Rica wins on penalties (Match finished 1-1 after extra time, Costa Rica won on penalties)

I should have bet on this one.  Kudos to Costa Rica for playing the last fifty minutes with ten men, and still hanging on.  On the flip side, Greece were poor, and Costa Rica deserved to go through.  A more formidable challenge awaits the Ticos.

5.  Nigeria over France 2-1 (France won 2-0)

The one upset that I predicted didn’t come off, but this one was more tense than the score implies.  It took France 82 minutes to break through, and even then it was the result of an error by the Nigerian goalkeeper.  The Super Eagles went on to concede an own goal in extra time that spared France a nervous finish, but, to be fair,2-0 wasn’t anything more than Les Bleus deserved.  They dominated the second half and eventually got their reward.

6.  Germany 2-0 over Algeria (Germany won 2-1 after extra time)

Algeria got through ninety minutes at 0-0, but they looked pretty exhausted by the time the whistle blew to mark the end of regular time.  Germany scored two minutes later, and the result wasn’t in doubt after that, despite a game effort from the Desert Foxes.  Still, the Germans will rue the profligate finishing that got them to extra time in the first place.

7.  Argentina 2-0 over Switzerland (Argentina won 1-0 after extra time)

It took Argentina 118 minutes, but they finally got their goal.  Not the first time in this tournament that they left it until late.  One worries that it’s a trick that they won’t be able to repeat too many more times.

8.  Belgium 2-1 over United States (Belgium won 2-1 after extra time)

I didn’t see the extra time coming, but this one largely conformed to expectations.  That it went beyond ninety minutes is a testament to Tim Howard (and somewhat of an indictment of Belgium’s shooting accuracy – as good as Howard was, he benefited from a fair number of shots being hit straight at him).  Even after all of that, though, the U.S. did enough at the end to give us some real hope.

QUARTER-FINAL MATCH-UPS (PREDICTED WINNERS IN BOLD)

Brazil vs. Colombia
Netherlands vs. Costa Rica
France vs. Germany
Argentina vs. Belgium

How will Brazil react after their close call with Chile?  Will Fred get benched?  Will Hulk move to the middle?  Lots of questions surround the hosts, and Colombia is riding high after dismantling Uruguay in the Round of 16.  It makes for a very intriguing start to the quarter-finals, and a Colombian victory wouldn’t be hugely shocking.  I think Colombia gives them all they can handle, but Brazil once again finds a way to survive.  2-1 to the hosts.

Costa Rica has done more than enough to silence their doubters, but the Netherlands are a vastly tougher opponent than Greece.  You have to back the quality of the Dutch here.  2-0 to the Oranje.

France vs. Germany is a tough one to predict.  Germany is probably regarded as a more talented team overall, but France has looked in better form so far in Brazil.  I think this will be a cagey affair, with both sides keen to avoid a fatal mistake.  I think it ends 1-1 and Germany advance on penalties.

From Belgium’s perspective, the most significant thing to come out of their win over the U.S. might have been the re-emergence of Romelu Lukaku.  He’d been marginalized after a poor start to the tournament, but when he came on in extra time today, he looked very dangerous.  Bad news for an Argentina defense that has seemed vulnerable at times.  This could be a wild one, but once again Messi will find a way.  2-1 to Argentina.

There are no games in Brazil today, so we have a chance to catch our breath before we kick off the knockout rounds tomorrow.  The group stage was fun, but now we’re down to the nitty gritty, where a small mistake could send your team packing.  Yesterday, four more teams punched their tickets into the Round of 16:

GROUP G

My prediction:

Winner: Germany
Runner-Up: Ghana

Actual result:

Winner: Germany
Runner-Up: United States

I’m awfully happy to have been proven wrong here.  The U.S. found a way to win that crucial first game against Ghana, despite bieng outplayed for most of the ninety minutes, and it gave them an advantage that they managed to maintain until the end (with a little help).  No matter – this group was a big test, and we passed it.  I don’t think that anyone can say that we don’t deserve our spot in the next round.

“Resiliant” is not the first word that comes to mind when I think of Portugal’s team, but when they were a goal down after 93 minutes against the U.S. (after getting hammerred 4-0 by Germany in their opener), it would have been easy to pack it in and get on the plane back to Lisbon.  They definitely deserve some credit for picking up four points from that position, especially since they always understood that they were never likely to overcome  their goal differential in a tiebreaker.

Even though they finished last, Ghana are the team that will feel like they let this one slip away.  I’m sure they felt like they deserved to get something out of the U.S. game, and they made Germany work for a draw.  Even after all of that, they found themselves tied 1-1 with Portugal with half an hour to go on Thursday, knowing that a 2-1 win would likely get them through.  The goal never came (in fact, they conceded one), and that was that.  It really was that close, though.

The U.S. kept it tight against Germany, but the game was almost completely one-sided.   The U.S. never really looked a threat to score.  Yes, Zusi sent a decent shot over the bar in the first half, and there was that little flurry right at the end of the game, but that was pretty much it.  Germany looked comfortable throughout, and you could see them kick it up a notch at the start of the second half, until they got their goal.

From here on out, all of our potential opponents will be likely to dominate possession against us.  Playing without the ball isn’t automatically a problem, and, one or two mistakes aside, our defense has looked solid enough.  Unless we can pair that capacity to soak up pressure with an ability to counter-attack effectively, though, we’ll just keep hanging on by our fingernails.  You can get away with that for a while, but eventually you’ll lose your grip.

GROUP H

My prediction:

Winner: Belgium
Runner-Up: Russia

Actual result:

Winner: Belgium
Runner-Up: Algeria

The weakest group on paper proved to be the weakest group on the pitch.  Belgium left it late against both Algeria and Russia, but they got goals when they needed them.  I was actually impressed by their ability to adapt – down 1-0 to Algeria in their opener, they brought Fellaini on, changed their approach, and won the game.  It’s nice to have a Plan B.

The rest of the group were pretty abysmal.  I didn’t expect much from South Korea, but they managed to be even worse than I’d thought.  In their final game, Belgium rested a handful of their first-choice players, went down to ten men before half time, and still beat them.  A few days earlier, the hapless Koreans had somehow managed to concede four goals to a not-exactly free scoring Algerian side, and their lone point came when the Russian goalkeeper fumbled the ball into his own net and handed them a draw.   It’s hard to find anything positive to say about their adventure in Brazil.

Russia weren’t all that much better, with only two draws to show for for their uninspired efforts.  They’ll be the hosts in 2018, and changes are needed if they want to avoid embarassing themselves on home soil.

Algeria took advantage of their opponents’ shortcomings, and, after scoring no goals in three games in 2010, put in six this time around.  Their progress was well-deserved, but their reward is a second round game against Germany, in what looks to be the most lopsided match-up in  the final sixteen.  One has to think that this as far as the Desert Foxes will go.

ROUND OF 16 MATCH-UPS (PREDICTED WINNER IN BOLD)

Germany vs. Algeria
Belgium vs. USA

There is some intriguing soccer history between Germany and Algeria, going all the way back to 1982.  In that year’s World Cup, West Germany and Austria met in the final game of the first round, knowing that a 1-0 victory for West Germany would guarantee both of them passage through to the next stage.  West Germany duly took a 1-0 lead after ten minutes, and then the two teams spent the remainder of the match kicking the ball around aimlessly, with neither one trying to score.  The team that sufferred from this bit of German-speaking collusion?  Algeria, of course, who would have advanced if Germany had won by more than two goals.  It was this match that spurred FIFA to adopt the current format wherein the final games of each group are played simultaneously, but that didn’t help Algeria at the time.  Their protests were dismissed and they were out of the tournament.

Obviously, 1982 will be on a lot of Algerian minds during the build-up to this game, and I’m sure that they’d love nothing more than to take their revenge in Brazil.  Given the gulf in talent between these two sides, though, it’s hard to see that happening.  2-0 to Germany.

Once again, I’m hoping that the U.S. team will prove me wrong.  It’s certainly not beyond them, but it’s an uphill climb.  The Americans will make it difficult for their opponents, as always, but I think the quality of the Belgian attack wins out.  2-1, Belgium.

We have indeed seen the last of Luis Suarez in this World Cup.  FIFA handed him a suspension that covers the next nine international matches, as well as a four-month ban from “all football-related activities.”  According to the announcement, he won’t even be allowed to enter a stadium during that time.  Inconvenient not just for Uruguay, but for Liverpool as well – he’s going to miss almost a quarter of the Premier League season, as well as part of the Champions League group stage.  They could decide to sell him, but it remains to be seen if Barcelona or Real Madrid will still be willing to meet Liverpool’s asking price.  It also depends on their ability to come up with a replacement.  If this saga interests you, I suggest you start reading the English newspapers, where all of it will be discussed ad nauseum for the foreseeable future.

Meanwhile, the World Cup goes on – two more groups were decided on Wednesday:

GROUP E

My prediction:

Winner: France
Runner-Up: Switzerland

Actual result:

Winner: France
Runner-Up: Switzerland

Hey!  I finally got one of these right!  This always looked like one of the easier groups to predict, and it played out the way that most of us expected.  France won it easily, which isn’t suprising in light of their extremely favorable draw.  Ecuador gave the Swiss a tough time, but couldn’t quite pull it off.

So, how far can France go?  There seems to be a lot of optimism in their camp, and given the way they’ve been scoring goals, it’s not without basis (only the Netherlands (ten) and Colombia (nine) scored more than France’s eight in the group stage).  I’m still not quite sold on these guys, though.  I feel like we need to see how they react to a bit of pressure, and no one in this group managed to apply any.  The degree of difficulty is about to go up.

GROUP F

My prediction:

Winner: Argentina
Runner-Up: Bosnia-Herzegovina

Actual result:

Winner: Argentina
Runner-Up: Nigeria

There was a sense that Argentina labored a bit more than they should have here (particularly against a surprisingly tough Iran side), but at the end of the day they won all three of their matches, and Messi is the tournament’s joint-top scorer so far (he and Neymar each have four goals).  Can’t really ask for much more than that, right?

The second spot was effectively decided when Nigeria eked out a controversial 1-0 win over Bosnia-Herzegovina.  Edin Dzeko had a goal wrongly disallowed for offside, and Bosnia were livid at what they perceived to be an uncalled foul by Nigeria in the buildup to the lone goal.  This one could have gone either way; luck was with the Nigerians.

ROUND OF 16 MATCH-UPS (PREDICTED WINNER IN BOLD)

France vs. Nigeria
Argentina vs. Switzerland

For the first time in the Round of 16, I’m going out on a limb here.  France will get there first taste of pressure from a Nigeria side that will feel good about their positive performance against Argentina.  Unfortunately for France, they have no Lionel Messi to bail them out.  2-1 to Nigeria.

After having to come back from behind against Ecuador and getting blown away by France, Switzerland seems to righted the ship.  Unfortunately for them, it won’t be enough to get them past all of the talent that Argentina will throw at them.  A fairly comfortable 2-0 win for Messi and friends.

What can I say about Luis Suarez that hasn’t already been said?  I mean, this was the third time in the last four years that he’s bitten an opponent during a match.  Not sure how much he can complain about the world labeling him as a sociopath.  He’ll serve a suspension, and then he’ll play again, for Liverpool or some other big club, and for his country.   He’ll score a bunch of fantastic goals, he’ll say and do all the right things for a while, and crowds will sing his name at Anfield (or at the Camp Nou, or the Bernabeu, depending on which transfer rumor you believe).  We’ll read about how he’s turned a corner and sorted himself out and that he’s a complicated, tortured guy, but maybe he’s got a decent core undereath it all.  And then he’ll do some other outrageous thing and we’ll start all over again.

In terms of this World Cup, though, we’ve almost certainly seen the last of him.  From a purely sporting perspective, that’s a shame.  He deserves whatever punishment he gets, of course, but that doesn’t change the fact that soccer games are more fun to watch when Luis Suarez plays in them.  Uruguay had a taste of life without Suarez  in their opener against Costa Rica, and it wasn’t pretty. It’s hard to think much of their chances with0ut him.

Even aside from The Bite, Tuesday was a pretty eventful day in Groups C and D, so without further ado, let’s see how I fared with my picks:

GROUP C

My prediction:

Winner: Colombia
Runner-Up: Ivory Coast

Actual result:

Winner: Colombia
Runner-Up: Greece

Colombia completely justified my faith in them, as they roared through this group with a perfect record while outscoring their opponents 9-2.  The Ivory Coast, on the other hand, let me down, as they conceded a penalty in stoppage time that wound up sending them home.  The manner of their exit may have seemed harsh, but the bottom line is that they just weren’t good enough here.  They struggled against a frankly rotten Japanese side, and they gifted Greece both of their goals (the aforementioned penalty, and a wayward backpass that created a two-on-one situtation right in front of their goal).  The penalty call looked correct, and the Ivorians have only themselves to blame for their early departure from Brazil.

Greece was the beneficiary of the Ivorians’ generosity, but they still really haven’t answered the question that I asked at the start – namely, where are these guys going to find goals?  The two that the Ivory Coast presented to them on a silver platter are the only two they’ve scored so far.  I appreciate that they spent a fair bit of the Japan game playing with ten men, and that 0-0 was a good result under those circumstances, but they’re going to need some offense if they want to keep going.

GROUP D

My prediction:

Winner: Italy
Runner-Up: Uruguay

Actual result:

Winner: Costa Rica
Runner-Up: Uruguay

This one took everyone by surprise, so at least I was in good company in getting it wrong.  I’m guessing that even the guys on the Costa Rica team didn’t think that they would pull it off.  In a year where underdogs have acquitted themselves pretty well, the Ticos took the cake.  Maybe they were lucky to face Uruguay without Suarez, but they fully deserved the results that they got.

Meanwhile, at the other end of the table, England spent the tournament doing what England usually does – playing hard and looking pretty good at times, but never quite managing to convert their chances into goals.  Throw in one or two defensive lapses, make sure that a ruthless finisher like Suarez is on hand to capitalize on those errors, and it all adds up to an early flight back to London.  Somehow, this manages to be surprising/disappointing despite being utterly predictable from the start.

Italy are more difficult to evaluate.  They looked quite good against England, but flat against Costa Rica and Uruguay.  In that last match, they were a little unlucky to see Marchisio sent off.  It was a bad challenge, but under the circumstances, I thought that maybe the referee could have let him off with a yellow card.  But that’s the game.  Between the red card and Suarez’s bite, which went unpunished, Italy may have felt wronged, but they simply didn’t do enough to get through.

ROUND OF 16 MATCH-UPS (PREDICTED WINNER IN BOLD)

Colombia vs. Uruguay
Costa Rica  vs. Greece

Even with Suarez, Colombia looked like a tall order for Uruguay.  Without him, this isn’t a hard pick to make.  3-1 to Colombia.

I’m always wary of Greece.  They’ll keep it tight, and they can always nick a goal and steal it.  I think Costa Rica will score here, but so will Greece.  I’m thinking 1-1, and Costa Rica advances on penalties.

If you’ve made time to watch the World Cup this year, you’ve been rewarded for it.  Everyone seems to agree that it’s been a great tournament so far – plenty of goals, exciting and competitive games, and some shocking results in the group stage.  The pace has picked up this week, as the first round draws to a close with four games each day until Thursday.  As the groups wrap up, I thought it made sense to look back at my predictions and see how I did, and to start looking ahead to the Round of 16.

GROUP A

My prediction:

Winner:  Brazil
Runner-Up:  Croatia

Actual result:

Winner:  Brazil
Runner-Up:  Mexico

Mexico seems to have purged the malaise that plagued them throughout CONCACAF qualifying, chalking up two wins and a draw to finish level on points with the hosts.  I underestimated them, and they proved me wrong with a strong 3-1 victory over Croatia on Monday.

Meanwhile, the home team got the job done, although they stumbled a bit coming out of the gate, needing a generous penalty to overcome Croatia and never breaking through against Mexico.  They finally delivered a convincing performance on Monday, and they won’t care that Cameroon were already eliminated.  Questions remain, but only because expectations were (and are) so ludicrously high.

GROUP B

My prediction:

Winner:  Spain
Runner-Up:  Chile

Actual result:

Winner:  Netherlands
Runner-Up:  Chile

My most glaring miss of the whole tournament, I think, as Spain were out after two games and the Netherlands finished with a perfect record.  It’s funny, because at half time of that opening Spain/Netherlands match, it really seemed like Spain were fine.  They had scored first, and only van Persie’s stunning header kept them from taking that lead into the break.  They looked comfortable enough, passing the ball around, creating chances… and  then the wheels totally came off.  Robben and van Persie ran wild, Iker Casillas made mistakes, and Spain seemed to come entirely unglued.  The 5-1 final score may have flattered Spain – it felt like they could have conceded three or four more.  They were never coming back after that.

I thought that Chile would knock out one of the European giants, but I picked the wrong one.

ROUND OF 16 MATCH-UPS (PREDICTED WINNER IN BOLD)

Brazil vs. Chile
Netherlands vs. Mexico

Chile have gotten quite a bit of deserved praise for the way they’ve played in this tournament so far, but failing to beat the Netherlands on Monday landed them a date with the hosts.  They’ll put up a good fight, but Brazil’s not going out in the second round.  2-1 to Neymar & Co.

Meanwhile, it’s hard to see Mexico getting past a Dutch side that’s firing on all cylinders.  Even with van Persie getting a day off yesterday, they still scored twice.  Mexico only managed one goal against Cameroon (while each of Croatia and Brazil scored four), and they didn’t get any against Brazil.  It was only in the last twenty minutes on Monday, when Croatia was attacking desperately, that they were able to break through.  I don’t see them being able to stem the Oranje tide. 2-0 to the Dutch.

Half a minute.  That’s all that stood between the U.S. team and progression into the Round of 16.  They just needed to keep Portugal out for another thirty seconds…

I probably watched the replay of that closing sequence in Manaus twenty times last night.  When the ball comes to Bradley near the half-way line, all he really needs to do is hoof it up the field, or into the stands.  Instead, he takes a heavy first touch, the ball squirts away from him, and he’s muscled off of it by one of the four Portuguese midfielders swarming around him.  Once that happens, everything else seems inevitable:  the ball being sprayed out wide to Ronaldo, the inch-perfect cross flying into the box, Varela’s header flying past a helpless Tim Howard.  And then it was over.

So how’s a U.S. fan supposed to feel after two games in Brazil?  Confused, I think, because our boys have somehow found a way to disappoint us while playing better (and getting better results) than most of us expected.  The Ghana match was a throwback to gritty American performances from past tournaments:  very little possession, desperate defending, a goal from a set piece, straight out of the underdog’s playbook.  The Portugal game was a different story.  Here was the evolution we’d been promised.  We kept the ball, passed it around well, created chances.  Of course, we benefited from the fact that Portugal was missing a couple of first-choice players, and Christiano Ronaldo was operating at less than 100%.  Even a diminished Portugual side, though, is stuffed with experienced players from Europe’s top leagues, and we’ve not fared well historically against European opposition.  Outplaying them meant something.

Unfortunately, moral victories aren’t much good in the standings, so here we sit with four points.  And that honestly seems about right (for as much as we might feel like we deserved to beat Portugal, Ghana will feel like they deserved a draw against us).  Will it be good enough to see us through to the next round, though?  Well… there’s always a chance, right?  We’ll park the bus against Germany, and if we can keep it 0-0 into the second half, maybe they’ll back off and take the draw that gets both of us through.  My gut tells me that’s not gonna happen, though.  I think Germany will score, and we’ll need to put at least one in the net.  I also think that Ghana will beat Portugal by more than one goal, so we can’t count on that tiebreaker.  In the end, though, I’m gonna choose to believe:

Predictions for Thursday:

Ghana beats Portugal 3-0.

U.S. draws with Germany 1-1 (Germany scores early, U.S. scores late).

Germany and the U.S. go through!

Well, after all that talk, we’ve finally seen some real, live soccer.  And it was… interesting.  Brazil wound up meeting pre-match expectations with a 3-1 win, but that score isn’t indicative of how close the match really was.  Brazil was sweating, for sure, and they’ll know that they’ll need to improve if they want to go deep into this tournament.  I thought Oscar was their best player, and Neymar scoring twice is obviously a good sign for the home team.  On the flip side, Julio Cesar looked shaky, Hulk and Paulinho were poor, and most of the others were anonymous.  I suppose the biggest compliment I can give them is that beat a good team by two goals, despite not being anywhere near their best.

Croatia will feel like they deserved a draw here, and it’s hard to argue with them.  They did everything they wanted to do, making things difficult for Brazil, and getting that critical early goal (or, rather, letting Brazil get it for them).   Giving up the lead before halftime didn’t help, but I thought they were managing the second half pretty well until the penalty against Lovren undid all of their good work.  It was a ridiculous call, as the Croatian defender did nothing other then watch Fred fall over in front of him.  The referee missed it completely, and the Croatian players were rightly enraged.  It happens, though, and the Croatians will need to get over it.  At the end of the day, they’re no worse off than they probably expected to be at this point.  Their tournament was always about beating Mexico and Cameroon, and that hasn’t changed.

One last word on this match – I usually stick up for goalkeepers, and I’ll stick up for Stipe Pletikosa here.  I don’t think he saw Neymar’s first goal until late, and Oscar’s toe-poke caught him off-guard.  Funny enough, I thought the one shot that he probably should have saved was Neymar’s penalty.  It was at a comfortable height, Pletikosa guessed the direction correctly, and he got two hands on the ball.  He probably should have managed to keep that one out, but it’s hard to blame a goalkeeper for a goal scored via penalty kick.  On the other two, I’m inclined to give him the benefit of the doubt.

GROUP H

I mentioned Belgium in my Group G Preview, as an example of a nation that’s undergone a complete restructuring in their approach to the game.  Now, they’re reaping the rewards for the work they put in, and the talent at their disposal is impressive.  Thibaut Courtois was the hottest goalkeeper in Europe last season; Vincent Kompany was a mainstay on defense in Manchester City’s title-winning team; teenager Adnan Januzaj was one of the few bright spots at Manchester United; Eden Hazard was Chelsea’s leading scorer; and Romelu Lukaku was a big part of Everton’s climb to a Europa League place.  The list goes on, too:  Witsel, De Bruyne, Dembele, Mirallas… these guys are loaded.

They have also been blessed with the tournament’s weakest group.  The only real threat here will be Russia, but their hopes have been dealt a blow by the absence of their captain, Roman Shirokov.  Former Chelsea man Yuri Zhirkov will take his place on the left side of the Russian midfield, and fifth-grade boys all over the country will snigger every time he touches the ball and the television announcer says something that sounds an awful lot like “jerkoff.”

Belgium is probably more talented, but Russia has a very experienced manager in Fabio Capello, and they will certainly be ready to pounce if the young Belgians falter.

South Korea is another team that I can’t pretend to know much about.  Their starting striker, Park Chu-young, plays for Arsenal.  Or, more accurately, he doesn’t play – he’s appeared in a grand total of seven minutes of Premier League action over the last three years.  They also made a hash of qualifying, using 45 different players and barely getting through against less-than-stellar opposition.  Finally, they were absolutely steamrolled by Ghana in their final pre-tournament friendly.  If these guys have a reason to be optimistic, I must be missing it.

Word is that Algeria has improved, and that they actually look to play quickly and attack, at least some of the time.  That would be a departure from past practice (they scored zero goals in three games in 2010), and, if nothing else, they should be more watchable this time around.  Not sure it’ll help them get any results, though – they seem outclassed, once again.

Group H Winner:  Belgium
Group H Runner-Up:  Russia