There are no games in Brazil today, so we have a chance to catch our breath before we kick off the knockout rounds tomorrow.  The group stage was fun, but now we’re down to the nitty gritty, where a small mistake could send your team packing.  Yesterday, four more teams punched their tickets into the Round of 16:

GROUP G

My prediction:

Winner: Germany
Runner-Up: Ghana

Actual result:

Winner: Germany
Runner-Up: United States

I’m awfully happy to have been proven wrong here.  The U.S. found a way to win that crucial first game against Ghana, despite bieng outplayed for most of the ninety minutes, and it gave them an advantage that they managed to maintain until the end (with a little help).  No matter – this group was a big test, and we passed it.  I don’t think that anyone can say that we don’t deserve our spot in the next round.

“Resiliant” is not the first word that comes to mind when I think of Portugal’s team, but when they were a goal down after 93 minutes against the U.S. (after getting hammerred 4-0 by Germany in their opener), it would have been easy to pack it in and get on the plane back to Lisbon.  They definitely deserve some credit for picking up four points from that position, especially since they always understood that they were never likely to overcome  their goal differential in a tiebreaker.

Even though they finished last, Ghana are the team that will feel like they let this one slip away.  I’m sure they felt like they deserved to get something out of the U.S. game, and they made Germany work for a draw.  Even after all of that, they found themselves tied 1-1 with Portugal with half an hour to go on Thursday, knowing that a 2-1 win would likely get them through.  The goal never came (in fact, they conceded one), and that was that.  It really was that close, though.

The U.S. kept it tight against Germany, but the game was almost completely one-sided.   The U.S. never really looked a threat to score.  Yes, Zusi sent a decent shot over the bar in the first half, and there was that little flurry right at the end of the game, but that was pretty much it.  Germany looked comfortable throughout, and you could see them kick it up a notch at the start of the second half, until they got their goal.

From here on out, all of our potential opponents will be likely to dominate possession against us.  Playing without the ball isn’t automatically a problem, and, one or two mistakes aside, our defense has looked solid enough.  Unless we can pair that capacity to soak up pressure with an ability to counter-attack effectively, though, we’ll just keep hanging on by our fingernails.  You can get away with that for a while, but eventually you’ll lose your grip.

GROUP H

My prediction:

Winner: Belgium
Runner-Up: Russia

Actual result:

Winner: Belgium
Runner-Up: Algeria

The weakest group on paper proved to be the weakest group on the pitch.  Belgium left it late against both Algeria and Russia, but they got goals when they needed them.  I was actually impressed by their ability to adapt – down 1-0 to Algeria in their opener, they brought Fellaini on, changed their approach, and won the game.  It’s nice to have a Plan B.

The rest of the group were pretty abysmal.  I didn’t expect much from South Korea, but they managed to be even worse than I’d thought.  In their final game, Belgium rested a handful of their first-choice players, went down to ten men before half time, and still beat them.  A few days earlier, the hapless Koreans had somehow managed to concede four goals to a not-exactly free scoring Algerian side, and their lone point came when the Russian goalkeeper fumbled the ball into his own net and handed them a draw.   It’s hard to find anything positive to say about their adventure in Brazil.

Russia weren’t all that much better, with only two draws to show for for their uninspired efforts.  They’ll be the hosts in 2018, and changes are needed if they want to avoid embarassing themselves on home soil.

Algeria took advantage of their opponents’ shortcomings, and, after scoring no goals in three games in 2010, put in six this time around.  Their progress was well-deserved, but their reward is a second round game against Germany, in what looks to be the most lopsided match-up in  the final sixteen.  One has to think that this as far as the Desert Foxes will go.

ROUND OF 16 MATCH-UPS (PREDICTED WINNER IN BOLD)

Germany vs. Algeria
Belgium vs. USA

There is some intriguing soccer history between Germany and Algeria, going all the way back to 1982.  In that year’s World Cup, West Germany and Austria met in the final game of the first round, knowing that a 1-0 victory for West Germany would guarantee both of them passage through to the next stage.  West Germany duly took a 1-0 lead after ten minutes, and then the two teams spent the remainder of the match kicking the ball around aimlessly, with neither one trying to score.  The team that sufferred from this bit of German-speaking collusion?  Algeria, of course, who would have advanced if Germany had won by more than two goals.  It was this match that spurred FIFA to adopt the current format wherein the final games of each group are played simultaneously, but that didn’t help Algeria at the time.  Their protests were dismissed and they were out of the tournament.

Obviously, 1982 will be on a lot of Algerian minds during the build-up to this game, and I’m sure that they’d love nothing more than to take their revenge in Brazil.  Given the gulf in talent between these two sides, though, it’s hard to see that happening.  2-0 to Germany.

Once again, I’m hoping that the U.S. team will prove me wrong.  It’s certainly not beyond them, but it’s an uphill climb.  The Americans will make it difficult for their opponents, as always, but I think the quality of the Belgian attack wins out.  2-1, Belgium.

We have indeed seen the last of Luis Suarez in this World Cup.  FIFA handed him a suspension that covers the next nine international matches, as well as a four-month ban from “all football-related activities.”  According to the announcement, he won’t even be allowed to enter a stadium during that time.  Inconvenient not just for Uruguay, but for Liverpool as well – he’s going to miss almost a quarter of the Premier League season, as well as part of the Champions League group stage.  They could decide to sell him, but it remains to be seen if Barcelona or Real Madrid will still be willing to meet Liverpool’s asking price.  It also depends on their ability to come up with a replacement.  If this saga interests you, I suggest you start reading the English newspapers, where all of it will be discussed ad nauseum for the foreseeable future.

Meanwhile, the World Cup goes on – two more groups were decided on Wednesday:

GROUP E

My prediction:

Winner: France
Runner-Up: Switzerland

Actual result:

Winner: France
Runner-Up: Switzerland

Hey!  I finally got one of these right!  This always looked like one of the easier groups to predict, and it played out the way that most of us expected.  France won it easily, which isn’t suprising in light of their extremely favorable draw.  Ecuador gave the Swiss a tough time, but couldn’t quite pull it off.

So, how far can France go?  There seems to be a lot of optimism in their camp, and given the way they’ve been scoring goals, it’s not without basis (only the Netherlands (ten) and Colombia (nine) scored more than France’s eight in the group stage).  I’m still not quite sold on these guys, though.  I feel like we need to see how they react to a bit of pressure, and no one in this group managed to apply any.  The degree of difficulty is about to go up.

GROUP F

My prediction:

Winner: Argentina
Runner-Up: Bosnia-Herzegovina

Actual result:

Winner: Argentina
Runner-Up: Nigeria

There was a sense that Argentina labored a bit more than they should have here (particularly against a surprisingly tough Iran side), but at the end of the day they won all three of their matches, and Messi is the tournament’s joint-top scorer so far (he and Neymar each have four goals).  Can’t really ask for much more than that, right?

The second spot was effectively decided when Nigeria eked out a controversial 1-0 win over Bosnia-Herzegovina.  Edin Dzeko had a goal wrongly disallowed for offside, and Bosnia were livid at what they perceived to be an uncalled foul by Nigeria in the buildup to the lone goal.  This one could have gone either way; luck was with the Nigerians.

ROUND OF 16 MATCH-UPS (PREDICTED WINNER IN BOLD)

France vs. Nigeria
Argentina vs. Switzerland

For the first time in the Round of 16, I’m going out on a limb here.  France will get there first taste of pressure from a Nigeria side that will feel good about their positive performance against Argentina.  Unfortunately for France, they have no Lionel Messi to bail them out.  2-1 to Nigeria.

After having to come back from behind against Ecuador and getting blown away by France, Switzerland seems to righted the ship.  Unfortunately for them, it won’t be enough to get them past all of the talent that Argentina will throw at them.  A fairly comfortable 2-0 win for Messi and friends.

What can I say about Luis Suarez that hasn’t already been said?  I mean, this was the third time in the last four years that he’s bitten an opponent during a match.  Not sure how much he can complain about the world labeling him as a sociopath.  He’ll serve a suspension, and then he’ll play again, for Liverpool or some other big club, and for his country.   He’ll score a bunch of fantastic goals, he’ll say and do all the right things for a while, and crowds will sing his name at Anfield (or at the Camp Nou, or the Bernabeu, depending on which transfer rumor you believe).  We’ll read about how he’s turned a corner and sorted himself out and that he’s a complicated, tortured guy, but maybe he’s got a decent core undereath it all.  And then he’ll do some other outrageous thing and we’ll start all over again.

In terms of this World Cup, though, we’ve almost certainly seen the last of him.  From a purely sporting perspective, that’s a shame.  He deserves whatever punishment he gets, of course, but that doesn’t change the fact that soccer games are more fun to watch when Luis Suarez plays in them.  Uruguay had a taste of life without Suarez  in their opener against Costa Rica, and it wasn’t pretty. It’s hard to think much of their chances with0ut him.

Even aside from The Bite, Tuesday was a pretty eventful day in Groups C and D, so without further ado, let’s see how I fared with my picks:

GROUP C

My prediction:

Winner: Colombia
Runner-Up: Ivory Coast

Actual result:

Winner: Colombia
Runner-Up: Greece

Colombia completely justified my faith in them, as they roared through this group with a perfect record while outscoring their opponents 9-2.  The Ivory Coast, on the other hand, let me down, as they conceded a penalty in stoppage time that wound up sending them home.  The manner of their exit may have seemed harsh, but the bottom line is that they just weren’t good enough here.  They struggled against a frankly rotten Japanese side, and they gifted Greece both of their goals (the aforementioned penalty, and a wayward backpass that created a two-on-one situtation right in front of their goal).  The penalty call looked correct, and the Ivorians have only themselves to blame for their early departure from Brazil.

Greece was the beneficiary of the Ivorians’ generosity, but they still really haven’t answered the question that I asked at the start – namely, where are these guys going to find goals?  The two that the Ivory Coast presented to them on a silver platter are the only two they’ve scored so far.  I appreciate that they spent a fair bit of the Japan game playing with ten men, and that 0-0 was a good result under those circumstances, but they’re going to need some offense if they want to keep going.

GROUP D

My prediction:

Winner: Italy
Runner-Up: Uruguay

Actual result:

Winner: Costa Rica
Runner-Up: Uruguay

This one took everyone by surprise, so at least I was in good company in getting it wrong.  I’m guessing that even the guys on the Costa Rica team didn’t think that they would pull it off.  In a year where underdogs have acquitted themselves pretty well, the Ticos took the cake.  Maybe they were lucky to face Uruguay without Suarez, but they fully deserved the results that they got.

Meanwhile, at the other end of the table, England spent the tournament doing what England usually does – playing hard and looking pretty good at times, but never quite managing to convert their chances into goals.  Throw in one or two defensive lapses, make sure that a ruthless finisher like Suarez is on hand to capitalize on those errors, and it all adds up to an early flight back to London.  Somehow, this manages to be surprising/disappointing despite being utterly predictable from the start.

Italy are more difficult to evaluate.  They looked quite good against England, but flat against Costa Rica and Uruguay.  In that last match, they were a little unlucky to see Marchisio sent off.  It was a bad challenge, but under the circumstances, I thought that maybe the referee could have let him off with a yellow card.  But that’s the game.  Between the red card and Suarez’s bite, which went unpunished, Italy may have felt wronged, but they simply didn’t do enough to get through.

ROUND OF 16 MATCH-UPS (PREDICTED WINNER IN BOLD)

Colombia vs. Uruguay
Costa Rica  vs. Greece

Even with Suarez, Colombia looked like a tall order for Uruguay.  Without him, this isn’t a hard pick to make.  3-1 to Colombia.

I’m always wary of Greece.  They’ll keep it tight, and they can always nick a goal and steal it.  I think Costa Rica will score here, but so will Greece.  I’m thinking 1-1, and Costa Rica advances on penalties.

If you’ve made time to watch the World Cup this year, you’ve been rewarded for it.  Everyone seems to agree that it’s been a great tournament so far – plenty of goals, exciting and competitive games, and some shocking results in the group stage.  The pace has picked up this week, as the first round draws to a close with four games each day until Thursday.  As the groups wrap up, I thought it made sense to look back at my predictions and see how I did, and to start looking ahead to the Round of 16.

GROUP A

My prediction:

Winner:  Brazil
Runner-Up:  Croatia

Actual result:

Winner:  Brazil
Runner-Up:  Mexico

Mexico seems to have purged the malaise that plagued them throughout CONCACAF qualifying, chalking up two wins and a draw to finish level on points with the hosts.  I underestimated them, and they proved me wrong with a strong 3-1 victory over Croatia on Monday.

Meanwhile, the home team got the job done, although they stumbled a bit coming out of the gate, needing a generous penalty to overcome Croatia and never breaking through against Mexico.  They finally delivered a convincing performance on Monday, and they won’t care that Cameroon were already eliminated.  Questions remain, but only because expectations were (and are) so ludicrously high.

GROUP B

My prediction:

Winner:  Spain
Runner-Up:  Chile

Actual result:

Winner:  Netherlands
Runner-Up:  Chile

My most glaring miss of the whole tournament, I think, as Spain were out after two games and the Netherlands finished with a perfect record.  It’s funny, because at half time of that opening Spain/Netherlands match, it really seemed like Spain were fine.  They had scored first, and only van Persie’s stunning header kept them from taking that lead into the break.  They looked comfortable enough, passing the ball around, creating chances… and  then the wheels totally came off.  Robben and van Persie ran wild, Iker Casillas made mistakes, and Spain seemed to come entirely unglued.  The 5-1 final score may have flattered Spain – it felt like they could have conceded three or four more.  They were never coming back after that.

I thought that Chile would knock out one of the European giants, but I picked the wrong one.

ROUND OF 16 MATCH-UPS (PREDICTED WINNER IN BOLD)

Brazil vs. Chile
Netherlands vs. Mexico

Chile have gotten quite a bit of deserved praise for the way they’ve played in this tournament so far, but failing to beat the Netherlands on Monday landed them a date with the hosts.  They’ll put up a good fight, but Brazil’s not going out in the second round.  2-1 to Neymar & Co.

Meanwhile, it’s hard to see Mexico getting past a Dutch side that’s firing on all cylinders.  Even with van Persie getting a day off yesterday, they still scored twice.  Mexico only managed one goal against Cameroon (while each of Croatia and Brazil scored four), and they didn’t get any against Brazil.  It was only in the last twenty minutes on Monday, when Croatia was attacking desperately, that they were able to break through.  I don’t see them being able to stem the Oranje tide. 2-0 to the Dutch.

Half a minute.  That’s all that stood between the U.S. team and progression into the Round of 16.  They just needed to keep Portugal out for another thirty seconds…

I probably watched the replay of that closing sequence in Manaus twenty times last night.  When the ball comes to Bradley near the half-way line, all he really needs to do is hoof it up the field, or into the stands.  Instead, he takes a heavy first touch, the ball squirts away from him, and he’s muscled off of it by one of the four Portuguese midfielders swarming around him.  Once that happens, everything else seems inevitable:  the ball being sprayed out wide to Ronaldo, the inch-perfect cross flying into the box, Varela’s header flying past a helpless Tim Howard.  And then it was over.

So how’s a U.S. fan supposed to feel after two games in Brazil?  Confused, I think, because our boys have somehow found a way to disappoint us while playing better (and getting better results) than most of us expected.  The Ghana match was a throwback to gritty American performances from past tournaments:  very little possession, desperate defending, a goal from a set piece, straight out of the underdog’s playbook.  The Portugal game was a different story.  Here was the evolution we’d been promised.  We kept the ball, passed it around well, created chances.  Of course, we benefited from the fact that Portugal was missing a couple of first-choice players, and Christiano Ronaldo was operating at less than 100%.  Even a diminished Portugual side, though, is stuffed with experienced players from Europe’s top leagues, and we’ve not fared well historically against European opposition.  Outplaying them meant something.

Unfortunately, moral victories aren’t much good in the standings, so here we sit with four points.  And that honestly seems about right (for as much as we might feel like we deserved to beat Portugal, Ghana will feel like they deserved a draw against us).  Will it be good enough to see us through to the next round, though?  Well… there’s always a chance, right?  We’ll park the bus against Germany, and if we can keep it 0-0 into the second half, maybe they’ll back off and take the draw that gets both of us through.  My gut tells me that’s not gonna happen, though.  I think Germany will score, and we’ll need to put at least one in the net.  I also think that Ghana will beat Portugal by more than one goal, so we can’t count on that tiebreaker.  In the end, though, I’m gonna choose to believe:

Predictions for Thursday:

Ghana beats Portugal 3-0.

U.S. draws with Germany 1-1 (Germany scores early, U.S. scores late).

Germany and the U.S. go through!

Well, after all that talk, we’ve finally seen some real, live soccer.  And it was… interesting.  Brazil wound up meeting pre-match expectations with a 3-1 win, but that score isn’t indicative of how close the match really was.  Brazil was sweating, for sure, and they’ll know that they’ll need to improve if they want to go deep into this tournament.  I thought Oscar was their best player, and Neymar scoring twice is obviously a good sign for the home team.  On the flip side, Julio Cesar looked shaky, Hulk and Paulinho were poor, and most of the others were anonymous.  I suppose the biggest compliment I can give them is that beat a good team by two goals, despite not being anywhere near their best.

Croatia will feel like they deserved a draw here, and it’s hard to argue with them.  They did everything they wanted to do, making things difficult for Brazil, and getting that critical early goal (or, rather, letting Brazil get it for them).   Giving up the lead before halftime didn’t help, but I thought they were managing the second half pretty well until the penalty against Lovren undid all of their good work.  It was a ridiculous call, as the Croatian defender did nothing other then watch Fred fall over in front of him.  The referee missed it completely, and the Croatian players were rightly enraged.  It happens, though, and the Croatians will need to get over it.  At the end of the day, they’re no worse off than they probably expected to be at this point.  Their tournament was always about beating Mexico and Cameroon, and that hasn’t changed.

One last word on this match – I usually stick up for goalkeepers, and I’ll stick up for Stipe Pletikosa here.  I don’t think he saw Neymar’s first goal until late, and Oscar’s toe-poke caught him off-guard.  Funny enough, I thought the one shot that he probably should have saved was Neymar’s penalty.  It was at a comfortable height, Pletikosa guessed the direction correctly, and he got two hands on the ball.  He probably should have managed to keep that one out, but it’s hard to blame a goalkeeper for a goal scored via penalty kick.  On the other two, I’m inclined to give him the benefit of the doubt.

GROUP H

I mentioned Belgium in my Group G Preview, as an example of a nation that’s undergone a complete restructuring in their approach to the game.  Now, they’re reaping the rewards for the work they put in, and the talent at their disposal is impressive.  Thibaut Courtois was the hottest goalkeeper in Europe last season; Vincent Kompany was a mainstay on defense in Manchester City’s title-winning team; teenager Adnan Januzaj was one of the few bright spots at Manchester United; Eden Hazard was Chelsea’s leading scorer; and Romelu Lukaku was a big part of Everton’s climb to a Europa League place.  The list goes on, too:  Witsel, De Bruyne, Dembele, Mirallas… these guys are loaded.

They have also been blessed with the tournament’s weakest group.  The only real threat here will be Russia, but their hopes have been dealt a blow by the absence of their captain, Roman Shirokov.  Former Chelsea man Yuri Zhirkov will take his place on the left side of the Russian midfield, and fifth-grade boys all over the country will snigger every time he touches the ball and the television announcer says something that sounds an awful lot like “jerkoff.”

Belgium is probably more talented, but Russia has a very experienced manager in Fabio Capello, and they will certainly be ready to pounce if the young Belgians falter.

South Korea is another team that I can’t pretend to know much about.  Their starting striker, Park Chu-young, plays for Arsenal.  Or, more accurately, he doesn’t play – he’s appeared in a grand total of seven minutes of Premier League action over the last three years.  They also made a hash of qualifying, using 45 different players and barely getting through against less-than-stellar opposition.  Finally, they were absolutely steamrolled by Ghana in their final pre-tournament friendly.  If these guys have a reason to be optimistic, I must be missing it.

Word is that Algeria has improved, and that they actually look to play quickly and attack, at least some of the time.  That would be a departure from past practice (they scored zero goals in three games in 2010), and, if nothing else, they should be more watchable this time around.  Not sure it’ll help them get any results, though – they seem outclassed, once again.

Group H Winner:  Belgium
Group H Runner-Up:  Russia

The time has finally come!  If you’ve developed a strategy to shorten your work days over the next few weeks, today is the day to begin implementing it.  Brazil vs. Croatia kicks off at 4:00 (New York time) this afternoon.  I’m sure your boss (and, hopefully, my boss) will understand.

Since today’s preview seems likely to get a bit wordy, seeing as how it involves the USA, I figure I’ll limit it to just one group.  I’ll wrap up with Group H tomorrow.

GROUP G

Compliments are funny things.  We all like to receive them, but they’re not always offered in the spirit of kindness, or at least not purely in the spirit of kindness.  Sometimes, condescension runs just beneath the surface, and the line between a compliement and an insult can get pretty fine.  It’s the kind of feeling you get when someone describes your house as “well-maintained.”  A nice enough thing to hear, but it makes you wonder if the speaker is really thinking, “It’s a pity it’s not bigger and newer.”

I have the same reaction when someone uses terms like “well-organized,” “hard-working” or “difficult to beat” to describe a soccer team.  None of those are bad qualities, and they all imply that a team is performing up to it’s potential, but I always feel like something is being left unsaid:  It’s a pity your players just aren’t good enough.

This is where the United States found themselves at the end of the Bob Bradley era.  They’d earned some respect from the rest of the world by beating Spain at the Confederations Cup, and then winning their group in 2010.  Several of the players were regulars with (not the biggest) European clubs.  They were decidedly not a pushover, but they seemed to have reached a ceiling.  They were capable of taking a big scalp, but they weren’t ready to be a top team themselves.

Hence, we’ve embarked on the Jurgen Klinsmann project.  His mandate is bigger than just the 2014 World Cup.  Really, he’s been charged with re-vamping our entire system; not just the way the national team plays, but the ways in which we indentify, develop and train young talent.  We want to create American players that can command $20 million transfer fees someday.

So how’s that going for us?  Honestly, it’s a silly question to ask at this point.  The type of change that Klinsmann was brought in to instill is going to take years to realize.  Look at Belgium as an example (more on them tomorrow).  In the early 2000’s, they scrapped their old system entirely.  They standardized their youth program, got everyone playing small-sided games as children and then transistioned them into an attacking 4-3-3 formation as they grew.  Everyone in Belgum learns to play the same way, with the same two-touch keep away drills featured at every practice, whether its the national team or a bunch of schoolkids.  A dozen years into their rebuilding project, they’re sending a very, very strong team to Brazil.

If tiny little Belgium can pull that off, then surely we can too, right?  Maybe, but we’ll have to go about it a little differently.  America’s size and temperment make it less amenable to top-down standardization, and the fact remains that other sports here compete for young atheletes’ attention to a degree that you don’t see in more soccer-centric countries.

I don’t want to seem overly pessimistic.  Soccer is more popular than ever in the United States, and growing.  MLS continues to see its credibility enhanced year after year, and an improving domestic league bodes well for the future of the national team.  But whether all of this leads to the U.S. showing up with a serious chance to win in 2022, or 2026, very much remains to be seen.

It might be premature to assess Klinsmann’s project at this stage, but it’s a World Cup year, so he’s going to have to answer for himself whether he’s ready or not.  So far, despite a couple of early stumbles, he’s done what he’s needed to do, namely get through CONCACAF qualifying unscathed.  At times, it felt like he had to revert to a more direct tactical approach than he would have preferred, but there’s nothing wrong with a little pragmatism in my book (perhaps something to keep in mind, given the strength of the opposition in Brazil).

Michael Bradley is the best American player, and most good things that happen for the U.S. will go through him.  Clint Dempsey has declined since 2010, but he remains an opportunistic goal scorer.  Jose Altidore’s role will be critical.  Even if he doesn’t score, he’s going to need to hold on to possession long enough to give the defenders a break from the pressure , and to allow others to join the attack.  Cameron and Besler are solid enough in central defense, but they’ll find it tough to hold off continous waves of German (or Portuguese, or Ghanaian) attacks without respite, even with support from Jermaine Jones from midfield.

The absence of Landon Donovan is less of a big deal than the press here is making it out to be.  He checked himself out of the national team set-up for large chunks of this World Cup cycle, and he hasn’t really been a central figure on the squad in quite some time.  It’s tempting to think that he might have proved useful in Brazil as an impact substitute, but his skills have diminished, and I’m inclined to trust Klinsmann’s judgment on this.

Is this team better than 2010’s version?  They actually might be; I certainly don’t see them as measurably worse.  Unfortunately, the draw was much less kind to them this time around.  In South Africa, they faced England, Slovenia and Algeria; in Brazil, it’ll be Germany, Portugal and Ghana, each of whom represents a bigger challenge than their corresponding predecessors.

Germany managed to develop their last batch of young stars ahead of schedule, and they made more of an impact in 2010 than anyone expected (3rd Place).  Now, those players have had the benefit of another four years of experience, and many of them are in their prime.  They play an open, attacking style, with quality in every position; if anything, they’ve been a little questionable defensively, but they are the consensus pick to win this group.  Many are backing them for a trip to the final.

One senses that Portugal’s fortunes are entirely dependent on Christiano Ronaldo, so the news that he’s been nursing an injured thigh must have jangled a lot of nerves in Lisbon.  The latest word is that he’s fit and ready, which is bad news for his Group G opponents.  Whatever you think of him, he’s a uniqely talented player, and even the Germans will struggle to contain him.

Setting your team up as a one-man band has its disadvantages, though, even when that man is the world’s best player.  Portugal required a playoff win over Sweden to even make it into this field (which they won, of course, on the back of spectacular hat trick from Ronaldo in Stockholm).  Impressive in the end, but they found themselves with their backs against the wall because they dropped points to teams like Northern Ireland and Israel.

If Portugal is going to survive this group, Ronaldo is going to need some help.  Joao Moutinho, Raul Meireles, William Carvalho, Helder Postiga – at least a couple of these guys are going to have to step up.  Perhaps more critically, the defense needs to be tighter than what they’ve shown.  They will likley open with a defeat against Germany, so they’ll need to be resiliant as well.

The final team here is Ghana, and their match against the United States on June 16 could prove critically important for both teams.  If either can win it, they’ll put themselves in pole position for that second qualifying spot.  Ghana were a missed penalty away from the semi-finals in South Africa, and they are eager to return to the late stages of this tournament.  They have also knocked the United States out of the last two World Cups, and they will be full of confidence based on not only on that history, but also on their recent form (they completely overran South Korea in their last friendly).

Ghana is an attacking team that likes to possess the ball and dominate in midfield, and they have the talent and the experience to do it.  Nine of their players appeared in the UEFA Champions League this season (compared to only one, Jermaine Jones of Schalke, for the U.S.).

For me, this is by far the most difficult group to predict.  Germany is the obvious pick to win, but I’ve talked myself into (and out of) each of the other three teams for the runner-up spot.  It’s not hard to envsion a way forward for the United States.  If they beat Ghana (well within the realm of possibility), they’ll be in a very good position heading into their match with Portugual.  Sadly, I don’t see that happening.  I think they lose to Ghana, draw with Portugal, and lose to Germany.  I sure hope I’m wrong.

Group G Winner:  Germany
Group G Runner-Up:  Ghana

Only one day left!  On to Groups E and F!

GROUP E

Pretend, for a moment, that you don’t know anything about the 2010 World Cup.  Then, say I were to tell you a story that went something like this:  In one of the group-stage games, a coach  addresses his team at half-time, with the score 0-0.  He criticizes one of his players for venturing out of position, and the player responds with a profanity-laced tirade that culminates in the player telling the coach to go f*%! himself, in front of the whole squad.  The coach removes said player from the game, and afterwards, the nation’s FA announces that they will be punishing him.

How do his teammates respond?  Well, they go on strike, of course, and refuse to practice the next day.  Predictably, there is a huge media storm at home, the team’s on-field performace suffers, and they fail to get out of their group.  The whole affair is viewed as a great national embarrassment.

Now, if I were to ask you to guess which country’s 2010 World Cup experience I’ve just described, you’d guess France, wouldn’t you?  Sometimes, the world just plays to our stereotypes, I suppose.

Given the chaos of their last World Cup adventure, one might wonder why anyone would pick France to win Group E this time around.  I could talk about the new coach, the new players, everyone’s fervent desire to atone for 2010… but none of that means as much as the simple fact that they drew pretty much the easiest possible opposition here.

Honduras seems to have regained their optimism after their 0-0 draw with England, but recent defeats to Turkey (2-0) and Israel (4-2) may be more indicative of their level.  Still, they played quite well in CONCACAF qualifying, and they’re used to playing in the heat.  They will look to play conservatively and counter-attack once their opponents have exhausted themselves.

Ecuador have some quality players in the likes of Felipe Caicedo, Enner Valencia, Antonio Valencia and Michael Arroyo, but they’ve struggled to remain consistent, and their defense is widely seen as shaky.  They will attack with gusto, but their approach may prove naive in this setting.  I suspect that the Europeans will be more troubled by Honduras’ defensive set-up.

Switzerland are France’s most likely challengers.  They looked very good in UEFA qualifying, winning their group by seven points.  One of their brightest stars, Xherdan Shaqiri, made a big-time move to Bayern Munich in 2012, but that led to him spending most of last season on the bench behind Arjen Robben.  Lack of games is always a concern, but that shouldn’t hold the Swiss back here.  They are a solid, well-organized team and they should get out of this group.

At the end of the day, though, France has a long list of big names in their squad – Lloris, Koscielny, Sagna, Evra, Pogba, Cabaye, Giroud, Remy… All experienced players from big clubs that should be able to get the job done in Group E (assuming, of course, they don’t decide to faire la grève this time around).

Group E Winner:  France
Group E Runner-Up:  Switzerland

GROUP F

For the last several years, Lionel Messi has been one side of a two-way debate over the identity of the world’s best player.  This past season, the balance of opinion seems to have tipped in Christiano Ronaldo’s favor, but let’s all take a deep breath and remember that Messi still scored 41 goals in 46 appearances in all competitions with Barcalona this season.  Standards have gotten pretty high when people see that kind of production as an “off” year.

Of course, it was Messi himself who set those standards by winning everything that there is to win with his club, and then winning it again.  His resume glitters with accomplishments, but there is one mountain he hasn’t yet managed to climb:  he’s never really shone on the World Cup stage.  2014 is his chance to do it in style on his home continent.

He’ll have plenty of help, as Argentina will field one of the most impressive squads in the tournament.  Higuain, Lavezzi, Mascherano, Di Maria, Zabaleta… everywhere you look, you find a star player coming off a good season at a big club.  It’s hard not to feel optimistic about their chances in Brazil.

Argentina’s cause is bolstered further by the fact that they got a pretty favorable draw here.  Iran’s best player toils in the second tier of English football, and the majority of his compatriots have never tested themselves outside of their own domestic league.  The gulf in class and experience will surely be too wide for them to overcome; the more realistic aim will be to avoid humiliation in defeat.

Nigeria is a step up from Iran, but it’s hard to see them worrying Argentina, either.  Premier League fans will recognize Victor Moses, Peter Odemwingie and Shola Ameobi – decent players all, but not exactly the type of guys that you would expect to shine in this competition.  Emmanuel Emenike and Uche Nwofor are decent attacking options as well, but most of the pre-tournament analysis that I’ve seen has focused on John Obi Mikel.  That’s not a good thing.  Based on what I’ve seen from him at Chelsea, it’s pretty clear that any team that needs John Obi Mikel to be their main man is in trouble.

That leaves Bosnia-Herzegovina as the last team with a chance to spoil Argentina’s party, and they’re an interesting one.  This is their first appearance at the World Cup, so there is a sense that they’re a bit of a wild card; they’ll certainly be playing with a ton of national pride (the benefits of which may be partially negated by the nerves that come with it).  I happened to watch their friendly last week against Mexico, and I thought they looked very capable.  I also know that they had a very strong qualification campaign, and that they have a star striker in Edin Dzeko.  Does all of this add up to a credible challenge to Argentina’s dominance?  Probably not, but it should be enough to get them out of one of the tournament’s weaker groups and into the Round of 16.

Group F Winner:  Argentina
Group F Runner-Up:  Bosina-Herzegovina

Only two days left until kickoff!  No time to waste – we’re on to Groups C and D today.

GROUP C

I like Arsene Wenger, and I respect everything that he’s accomplished with Arsenal over the years, but I’m going to pick on him a bit here.  Every time that Arsenal fails to beat the likes of Stoke or West Ham, Mr. Wenger seems to make a point of taking umbrage with his opponent’s tactics.  According to his narrative, Arsenal are always the good guys, trying to play the “right way,” while other teams are cynical, joyless bastards, commited only to spoiling Arsenal’s art, rather than creating something beautiful of their own.

It’s tempting, sometimes, to think that everyone should play the way that Mr. Wenger wants Arsenal to play – all possession and passing and movement and the ball always on the floor.  That’s the “beautiful game” that we hear so much about, right?  You can almost understand why supporters of bigger clubs infuse all of this with an almost moralistic aspect.  Their players are out there trying to create, trying to play, and the only thing that their small-minded foes want to do is thump the ball away.  It just seems like an afront to the spirit of the game.

That is, of course, until you remember that all of that is a bunch of self-serving nonsense.  Arsene Wenger understands, as we all do, that if teams like Stoke and West Ham tried to play Arsenal’s game against Arsenal, then Arsenal would win by five or six goals every time.  But there is more than one way to skin a cat, and teams that want to win things need to figure out ways to overcome negativity.  Fielding a team of hard men who push people around and play long balls toward a tall striker is as valid a tactic as any other.  It might not be as fun to watch, but sometimes it’s the smart play.  No team should set themselves up to lose in the name of aesthetics.

All of that is a very roundabout way to getting to a discussion of Greece, as they are perhaps the best example of the “defense-first” approach in the field this year.  They took that path in Euro 2004, and were widely derided for it; I’m not sure how much they lamented being unloved as they lifted that trophy.  Their approach doesn’t seem to have changed much over the last ten years.  They will be hard to beat, but it’s unclear who will provide the goals.  They may not need many, but at least a few will be required if they’re going to advance.

I confess to not being all that familiar with Japan’s squad, so I may well be underrating them here.  I do know that Shinji Kagawa’s reputation has sufferred since his move to England (although, to be fair, no one at Manchester United covered themselves in glory last season).  One possibility is that he uses the World Cup as a platform to re-energize his career, and reminds everyone why he was held in such high regard in Germany.  Perhaps more likely, he struggles to regain his sharpness after a season of sporadic and largely disappointing action.  Their other highest-profile player, Keisuke Honda, is in the same boat, more or less.  Okazaki and Uchida are quality players as well, but Japan’s recent inconsistency makes me hesitatant to back them to get out of Group C.

Colombia probably has the most talented squad in Group C, but their hopes have been dented by the injury to Radamel Falcao.  Jackson Martinez had a great season at Porto, but he hasn’t yet shown the ability to do it at the highest level.  They are playing close to home and determined to re-establish themselves as a South American power.

Ivory Coast features two huge stars in Didier Drobga and Yaya Toure.  Drogba is a few years removed from terrorizing Premier League defenders in a Chelsea shirt, but he remains a formidable player even at the age of 36.  Toure, on the other hand, still looks to be in his prime at 31 and is capable of dominating matches from the midfield.  When you throw in Gervinho, Salomon Kalou and Wilfried Bony, it’s easy to see this team scoring plenty of goals.  Unfortunately, it’s also easy to see them conceding plenty of goals.  A leaky defense isn’t usually a recipe for tournament success, and it will probably limit their ability to progress beyond the Round of 16, but their firepower should get them out of this group.

It wouldn’t be the biggest surprise if any one of these teams won Group C, but I’m going with:

Group C Winner:  Colombia
Group C Runner-Up:  Ivory Coast

GROUP D

Certain narratives seem to attach themselves to national teams over time.  Some, like “Spain can’t win the big one,” are eventually overtaken by events and fade away; others, like “England will never, ever, ever win on penalties,” persist even as entirely new generations of players replace those that went before.  Italy are a nation with a good deal of soccer history, and they have the  repuation to match.  Defensively solid.  Not prone to making mistakes.  Good on the big stage.  A very dangerous tournament team.

That reputation took a bit of a hit in 2010, when they failed to win a single game and finished last in their group.  They managed to bounce back with run to the final in Euro 2012, and I expect them to be difficult customers in Brazil as well.  As eccentric as he may be, Mario Balotelli is a handful for any defender to deal with.

As you might expect, I have a lot of thoughts about England.  All of their players play in their domestic league, which happens to be the league I follow most closely.  That means that I’ve seen more of them than I have of anyone else, including the U.S.A. players.  I’ve also taken in a fair bit of English press coverage, which, I have to admit, seems to have become less hyperbolic this time around.  Historically, the tendency in the papers there has been to foster unrealistic expectations, and then label everyone connected with the national team as incompetent when those expectations are inevitably not met.

In 2014, there finally seems to be a broad national acceptance of what England’s team actually is:  a collection of good to very good players, most of whom, as individuals, would not be out of place on very big club teams, but which doesn’t quite have the quality that you find in truly elite sides.  That said, I actually like this team.  It doesn’t hurt that at least four Liverpool players are likely to start (Gerrard, Henderson, Johnson, Sturridge), and Sterling will probably be involved as well.  If Wayne Rooney plays well, and Sturridge finds the form that he displayed earlier in the season, England’s attack could be pretty effective.

I’m more concerned about the defensive end of things.  Cahill and Jagielka are solid enough, but their not the fleetest of foot, and (lack of) speed kills at this level.  Also, I wonder how much support they’ll get on their flanks.  On the right, Glen Johnson is known for being very good going forward, not so good when it comes to defending.  On the left, Baines’ defensive reputation is not as questionable as Johnson’s, but he’s relatively new to this role on the England team, having only recently taken the position from the long-serving Ashley Cole.  Picking Baines was absolutely the correct choice, given Cole’s advancing age and lack of playing time at Chelsea, but it’s still a risk.

All of that seems to add up to Gerrard and Henderson having to sit very deep in order to support the center-backs, and the onus will be on Henderson, particularly, to do a ton of running in order to get forward to join the attack as well.  On a bad day, I can see Rooney drifting way too far back into midfield to try to get on the ball, while Sturridge is left all alone up top.  If that happens, England games will not make for good watching.

There is another Liverpool player whose shadow looms over this group, and he doesn’t play for England.  I’m talking, of course, about Uruguay’s Luis Suarez.  He’s a fascinating character who probably deserves his own, completely separate discussion.  You will remember that it was his deliberate hand ball (together with the ensuing missed penalty) that knocked Ghana out of the quarterfinals in South Africa four years ago.  Since then, he’s had two long suspensions in England (one for making racist remarks to Manchester United’s Patrice Evra, the other for biting – yes, biting, with his teeth – Branislav Ivanovic of Chelsea).  He also has a reputation for taking dives in order to get referees to call penalties against his opponents (although referees have become hyper-aware of this and it feels like his legitmate claims are now ignored more often than his spurious claims are rewarded).

He may be an unsavory character, but he’s capable of doing stuff like this.  And these.  Whether or not any of that should be enough to make us forget about his flaws and cheer his name is a topic for another day.  For our purposes, we just need to appreciate that he is a hell of a goal-scorer.

Unfortunately for Uruguay, he’s also injured.  He recently had knee surgery, and his ability to impact this World Cup is very much up in the air.  If he were fit, he is exactly the kind of player that England’s aforementioned center-back pairing would struggle mightly to contain.  If he misses that match, or is less than his usual self, playing against Uruguay isn’t quite as daunting.

But that’s not to say they’ll be easy to beat, even without their star striker.  They made the semi-finals in 2010, and now they are on their home continent.  Edinson Cavani is no slouch, and all signs point to Suarez participating to some extent.  I’m looking for them to go through.

Costa Rica rounds out this group, and while they had a nice qualifying campaign, they’re likely to find the going much tougher in Brazil.  Not sure they’ll get a point out of this group.

In slightly easier company, I would back England to progress, as I think that they’ll play pretty well.  At this level, though, good performances can be undone by small errors.  England seems more likely to make a mistake than Italy, so I’m picking:

Group D Winner:  Italy
Group D Runner-Up:  Uruguay

At least England won’t have to endure the trauma of being eliminated on penalties this time around…